Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told C-SPAN on Tuesday that there is a 1-in-3 chance of a recession this year and ”even odds” within the next two.
”I would put the odds of a recession beginning in the next 12 months at about 1 in 3, and probably close to even odds over the next couple of years,” Zandi said on the network’s ”Washington Journal.”
”Recession risks are high, but I think that if we do suffer one over the next year or two, it will be a more typical, relatively mild economic downturn.”
The prediction by Zandi comes as inflation reaches its highest level in years due to supply chain bottlenecks and a spike in consumer demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to The Hill.
The Kremlin’s Ukraine invasion has also helped compound the supply chain woes, specifically food, oil, and gas shortages.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said he’s willing to lift blockades against Ukraine’s grain and fertilizer exports if the U.S. lifts its sanctions against the country. The U.S., however, declined the offer, Bloomberg reported on Friday.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he sees interest rates rising at least 2 more percentage points from here on out. The board had recently approved a half-percentage-point rate increase in May, the largest since 2000.
”Over a longer period, we will learn more about how monetary policy is affecting demand and how supply constraints are evolving,” Waller said while in Europe. ”If the data suggest that inflation is stubbornly high, I am prepared to do more.”
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, consumer prices increased by 6.3% from April 2021 to April 2022.